How Carter helped Reagan End the Cold War

Ronald Reagan’s help in ending the cold war came from Gorbachev, the Pope, Jimmy Carter, a Polish Colonel and a Soviet KGB Colonel. The roles of the Pope and Gorbachev are widely appreciated. Few, however, recognize that Reagan’s success was also due to the fact that he implemented and added credibility to nuclear missile programs begun under Jimmy Carter. Reagan’s rhetoric and credibility led Soviet intelligence to a threat assessment that the US could be preparing to start a nuclear war.

This assessment caused the Soviets to misinterpret US actions, leading to the “war scare” of 1983. Reagan and Gorbachev, once they were both aware of this danger, began to negotiate reductions in nuclear arms. Here is the story, in brief form.

The Carter administration began a defense buildup after the Soviets invaded Afghanistan. As part of this buildup, the Carter administration developed a targeting strategy of direct attacks on Soviet command and control facilities utilizing the Pershing II missile. Reagan adopted this strategy.

This was part of a negotiating tactic designed to bring the Soviets to the bargaining table. (See Don Oberdorfer’s book). On February 12, 1983, in the midst of a 20-inch snowstorm, Ronald and Nancy Reagan had dinner with Secretary of State George (and Mrs.) Shultz. With the defense buildup underway and credibility high, Reagan and Shultz began to discuss ways of improving relations with the Soviets.

Reagan’s knowledge of Soviet plans and intentions was aided by Polish Colonel Ryszard Kuklinski. With the help of the CIA, Kuklinski photographed and transmitted over 40,000 pages of classified documents during the previous decade.

Reagan’s wish to improve relations was soon blocked by two events. First, the Soviet shoot down of a civilian Korean airliner on September 1, 1983 added to the tensions and fueled the administration’s perception of implacable Soviet hostility. (Later analysis suggested that the shoot down and death of all 269 passengers was a result of the combination of Korean navigation errors, Soviet incompetence, and fear.)

Second, on the Soviet side, a series of events culminated in what is known as the 1983 “war scare.” Wary of Reagan, Soviet intelligence had directed a worldwide alert known as operation RYAN, the Russian acronym for Nuclear Missile Attack. We owe our knowledge of these events to a KGB Colonel named Oleg Gordievsky who was the head of the KGB residency in London. See Fischer, Benjamin A Cold War Conundrum Central Intelligence Agency ).

The “war scare” lasted from November 2 to 11, 1983, the dates of the US exercise known as Able Archer 83. From a US point of view, this was a routine exercise, designed to test readiness of command and control systems. According to Gordievsky, Able Archer pushed the Soviets into a high state of alarm.

When told of the situation by an aide, Reagan responded that he did not see how the Soviets could believe that the US intended to attack – but that it was “something to think about.” National Security Advisor MacFarlane reports that Reagan spoke about the biblical prophecy of Armageddon on the same day. While the Soviets and the American press took this as evidence of Reagan’s warlike tendencies, it was actually a result of his growing awareness of Soviet paranoia and the need for diplomatic engagement.

Able Archer and the war scare have been portrayed as a sort of epiphany for Reagan and Gorbachev – leading them to heightened awareness of the dangers of nuclear war and to engage in negotiations aimed at ending the nuclear arms race.

While it will be up to the historians to judge the true impact of the arms buildup and Reagan diplomacy, the record should show that Reagan got help from Gorbachev, John Paul II – and from Jimmy Carter, Gordievsky and Kuklinski.