HerbEly

Should Intelligence Estimates be Quantified?

In a previous post I started a discussion of stating intelligence estimates in terms of percentage confidence. This was based on Michael Schrage’s op ed piece: What Percent Is 'Slam Dunk'?
Give Us Odds on Those Estimates. Shrage wrote that it wasn’t enough for George Tenet to assure the President that the case for WMD’s in Iraq was a “slam dunk.” Estimates should be quantified. The intelligence community has been trying this for years, as Schrage writes.

The Next Just War Debate: Bishops Will Miss the Point

Military officers are seriously considering the applicability of the just war doctrine to the changing nature of warfare, particularly with respect to the terrorist threat. Based on my past experience, I predict that the Bishops will pay minimal attention to this entire discussion. In the next crises, they will drag out old textbooks on just war doctrine and attempt to apply them to the changed situation. Their well-intentioned moral pronouncements will be of little use to official decision-makers. These pronouncements will, however, be used by elements of the religious community to justify there opinions on war. Rather than contributing to an informed debate, they will detract from it.

It would be more useful to pay attention to these questions now. Leading church member should join in the following discussion:

Gone till Monday

We are on our way to Williamsburg, VA for the Capitol District Kiwanis Midwinters Conference. Always inspiring, informative and fun. See you Monday.

Ethics: Senior Leader’s Responsibility

Some comments from working level professionals prompted me to post this quote from Army FM22-03 LEADERSHIP and COMMAND at SENIOR LEVELS

"Senior leaders and commanders have specific ethical responsibilities to their organizations. These responsibilities flow directly from the attributes required of senior leaders to successfully implement their vision. First, they are worthy role models. Second, they promote the ethical development of their subordinates by teaching them how to reason clearly about ethical matters. Finally, they sustain an ethical climate that promotes trust and professional commitment." (Page 18)

Senior, in this context usually means three star general officers.

Preemption and Just War: a commentary

Parameters, The Army War College quarterly, has published my commentary on Col. Franklin Eric Wester's Preemption and Just War:
Considering the Case of Iraq .

Please take a look.

A High Percentage Intelligence Shot?

When Bill Russell was a color commentator for NBA basketball he used to call the slam dunk a high percentage shot.

Michael Schrage asks about George Tenant assuring the President that the case for WMD in Iraq was a “slam dunk. “What percent”, he asks, “is a slam dunk?”
“…to require national security analysts to assign numerical probabilities to their professional estimates and assessments as both a matter of rigor and of record. Policymakers can't weigh the risks associated with their decisions if they can't see how confident analysts are in the evidence and conclusions used to justify those decisions. The notion of imposing intelligence accountability without intelligent counting -- without numbers -- is a fool's errand.”

I’m inclined to agree that a written statement such as there is a 90% chance of snow tonight is more useful than one that say’s it is going to snow . Advocating that intelligence analysts state their conclusions in terms of subjective probability raises questions in philosophy, personality theory, and organization theory, as well as from my own experience.

The question is an old one. Aristotle wrote:

Pareto's Law & Good Samaritans

Disputations relates the interesting statistic that ten percent of people will help a stranger in need. It reminds me of Pareto's law - 20% of the inventory produces 80% of the profit. The lession for the retailer is to be sure that the 20% is in stock and displayed in a way that will bring traffic past the other 80% of the inventory. That way the customer will walk past other items to buy milk.

From a managerial point of view, Pareto's law would indicate that a pastor would be sure to take care of the ten percent most likely to be good samaratans - assuming that they can be identified. This principal, of course would encourage the pastor to care for his most productive parishioners and ignore the lost sheep.

Trapped in a Box

Watch this guy try to get out of this box . Thanks to The Okhamist .

Abraham Did the “Next Right Thing”

Sunday’s first reading clarifies moral choices that occasionally face us in the working world. The LORD said to Abram: "Go forth from the land of your kinsfolk and from your father's house to a land that I will show you. … Abram went as the LORD directed him, and Lot went with him. Abram was seventy-five years old when he left Haran. (Gen 12:1-4)

Abram turned “his life and will over to the care of God.” Great blessings followed.

Most of us face similar choices. They may be less dramatic and hidden from our consciousness. When people miss them, the results are often obvious.

Is this quote from Kierkegaard?

"Life is a mystery to be lived, not a problem to be solved." Wikipedia attributes it to him. Just wondering. Our former pastor used to use it as a tag line for his homilies. It has been helpful to us more than once.