One of my sons likes to use this as an example of irrational risk assessment: On hearing the word “shark”, beachcombers run into their cars, light up cigarettes and drive home. While running away from a small but unfamiliar risk they willingly accept two much larger risks that they think they can control.
Our response to terrorism is similar. In his lead essay lead essay in the September 11 issue of Cato Unbound, John Mueller compares both risks and costs:
At present, Americans are vastly more likely to die from bee stings, lightning, or accident-causing deer than by terrorism within the country. That seems pretty safe.
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Outside these war arenas, the number of people worldwide (few of them American) who have been killed by such terrorists may have gone up a bit since 9/11, but in five years the number killed in explosions set off by Al Qaeda or Al Qaeda types stands at 900 or so—notably smaller than the number who have drown in bathtubs (300-400 per year) in the United States alone during the same period.
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"Homeland security cannot be had on the cheap," proclaims Senator Joseph Lieberman. The problem is that it cannot be had on the expensive either. It is possible to make any individual target—like the Washington Monument–more secure from terrorism. But, unless funds are infinite, society can't defend against every possibility—or even against a large number of them. To be blunt (and obvious), it is simply not possible to protect every bus, every shop, every factory, every tunnel, every bridge, every road, every mall, every place of assembly, every mile of railroad track.
Ever since blogging about the James Fallows article in Atlantic Monthly, I’ve been thinking about our response to terrorism. The reason that the Spanish flu killed a disproportionate number of young people was that, being younger, they had a stronger immune response. Older people, having weaker immune systems, responded less strongly – and survived.
I’m sympathetic to the Libertarian analysis on this. We need to respond to terrorism. Our response, however, must be proportionate to the threat. Over-response can destroy our liberties and economy.
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