George Tenet and the Generalized Iceberg Theorem

    The teasers for former DCI George Tenet’s book At the Center of the Storm: My Years at the CIA remind me of Marshall’s Generalized Iceberg Theorem: “Seven eighth’s of everything can’t be seen.”

    According to Dafna Linzer in this morning’s Washington Post

Former CIA director George J. Tenet bitterly complains in a forthcoming television interview that White House officials set him up as a scapegoat when they revealed that he had assured President Bush the intelligence on Iraq's suspected weapons arsenal was a "slam dunk."

Tenet will be on CBS’s 60 Minutes on Sunday night to tell his side of the story. Here are three questions about things that couldn’t be seen:

1. The October 2002 National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruction did not demonstrate an immanent threat as a critical reading would have shown. How could the DCI have not known that the case was flimsy?
2. What did the DCI know about the suspect intelligence source curve ball? The administration used information from this source to support the case for war, even though intelligence professionals were warning that he was not to be trusted.
3. DISTSUM 044-O2 warned against believing reports from Al-Libi, a key source purporting to connect Al-Qaeda with Iraq.  Was the former DCI aware of this document and did he tell the President?

Tune in to 60 minutes Sunday night and check this blog Monday for some reaction.

NOTE: This post linked to Beltway Traffic Jam for 04/28/07